"Just 3-1/2 years ago in
early 2011, COMEX warehouses held more than 11 million ounces of eligible gold,
with JPM holding more than 3 million of these 11 million ounces. As of August
9, 2013, JPM’s eligible gold has fallen from 3+ million ounces to 361,606
ounces. Thus, it is safe to conclude that physical gold is being withdrawn from
COMEX warehouse due to a lack of trust in the global banking sector’s honesty
and credibility. Though most statistics today discuss the collapse in eligible
gold, I actually believe that the collapse in registered gold is more
compelling. Recall that registered gold is the gold held at the COMEX that is
available for delivery while eligible gold is not “eligible” for
delivery."
Pokazywanie postów oznaczonych etykietą złoto. Pokaż wszystkie posty
Pokazywanie postów oznaczonych etykietą złoto. Pokaż wszystkie posty
Nowe treści na rynku złota
"Wczoraj trafiłem na depeszę Reutera czy Bloomberga, w którym jeden z
producentów zapewniał, iż nie zamierza rezygnować z planów inwestycyjnych mimo
krachu cen surowca (gold crush). Chyba jestem ostatnią osobą, którą można
określić mianem zakochanego w złocie, ale trudno było jednak nie odnotować
faktu, iż na rynku musiała zajść jakaś fundamentalna zmiana w nastrojach, skoro
w serwisach z taką swobodą zaczyna operować się pojęciami właściwie zakazanymi
dla pewnych segmentów. Przecież złoto nigdy nie bankrutuje. Czy zatem można ze
złotem zbankrutować? Jeszcze niedawno krach i złoto w jednym zdaniu jawiło się,
jako herezja."
Bernanke: No One Understands Gold Prices
Coś czego nikt nie rozumie, czyli Ben
Bernanke o rynku złota:
Real rolling gold returns compared to stocks
"For the period
1928-2012, the average annual compound real return of stocks = 6.0% and gold =
2.2%. However, the price of gold was controled by the government until the
mid-70s when the US finally abandoned the gold standard. For the period
1976-2012, the average returns were stocks = 6.7% and gold = 2.5%."
Nouriel Roubini Seriously Misguided on Gold, on Equities, on Economic Growth, on Money
"I just finished reading
Nouriel Roubini's seven point analysis on the Bursting of the Gold Bubble in
which Roubini's asks and answer the question "Gold skyrocketed to over
$1,900 per ounce in the fall of 2011 from $800 in early 2009, but has since
collapsed by around 27%. Why?"
I offer a point-by-point rebuttal."
"Clearly Roubini believes that printing money creates wealth. The average 7th-grader (not yet influenced by Keynesian and Monetarist clown teachers) can easily figure out the fallacies of such ridiculous economic theories."
Jak wprowadzić standard złota?
Bardzo ciekawa koncepcja powrotu do
standardu złota, w której autor nie powtarza schematu szkoły austriackiej, a
wręcz przeciwnie stara się wyeliminować jej słabe punkty:
"Idea przywrócenia złotu statusu oficjalnego pieniądza (czy też, jak
to się często określa, „przywróceniem standardu złota”) wydaje się zyskiwać na
popularności na całym świecie i niewykluczone, że już w niedalekiej przyszłości
władze przynajmniej niektórych państw postanowią wprowadzić ją w życie. Do
realizacji tego celu będą potrzebować jakiegoś planu określającego, jakie działania
należy podjąć. Tego rodzaju plany istnieją, jednakże większość z nich, a w
każdym razie większość spośród znanych autorowi niniejszego tekstu, opiera się
na dyskusyjnym założeniu, że przekształcenie systemu pieniężnego powinno wiązać
się z ustanowieniem stałego kursu wymiany między złotem a jednostką
obowiązującej waluty (czy też, jak kto woli, „zdefiniowaniem” tej jednostki
jako pewnej ilości złota) oraz wykorzystaniem posiadanych przez rząd lub bank
centralny rezerw złota, które mają być udostępnione po oficjalnym kursie."
Visualizing The Cost Of Mining Gold
Ciekawa infografika o kosztach wydobycia
złota. Pewnie mało kto odgadnąłby, że w Ameryce Północnej gotówkowe koszty
wydobycia ("cash costs" według metodologii twórców grafiki) są
najniższe spośród pozostałych kontynentów.
Did the Gold Standard Work? Economics Before and After Fiat Money
"Suddenly gold is
being proposed as a cure-all for the weakening dollar, allowing it to retain
its place as the international reserve currency — a trophy taken, not without a
fight, from the British pound at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944.
Predictably, many commentators are reducing the most sophisticated, technical
economic issues to a paella of nationalism, confusion about basic economic
facts, and old-fashioned avarice.
To help throw up some light, let’s start with the simple questions: How is a classical gold standard supposed to work? How did it actually work out in the past? Why did previous versions of the international reserve currency lose their mantle? What is the record of the fiat currency version of the dollar as an international reserve currency? And why is it now rather than some other moment that gold is so much discussed?"
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/
To help throw up some light, let’s start with the simple questions: How is a classical gold standard supposed to work? How did it actually work out in the past? Why did previous versions of the international reserve currency lose their mantle? What is the record of the fiat currency version of the dollar as an international reserve currency? And why is it now rather than some other moment that gold is so much discussed?"
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/
Gold Crush Started With 400 Ton Friday Forced Sale On COMEX
"The gold futures
markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million
ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract in what proved
to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very
important level of $1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen
by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to
2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level... the line
in the sand. (...)
The selling was timed
for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold
markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400
tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine
production - too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with
sentiment weak following gold's non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a
nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data. The assault to
the short side was essentially saying "you are long... and wrong"."
Gold: Of Bogeymen and Bunker Monkeys
"So this takes us
to the real point: Gold – unlike bank deposits, equity or bonds, or even
banknotes – it’s separate from the real economy; it’s what you invest in when
you want to take a breather from what’s happening in the real economy. That’s
actually only a sensible thing to do in pretty extreme circumstances. Gold
returns are utterly crushed by equity markets in the long term – to a really
astonishing degree for those economies where we have continuous equity markets.
Compared with shares in pre-revolutionary China or pre-war Poland, gold returns
look pretty good. Gold is less an index of how confident we are that our leaders
a) want to b) know how to do the right thing as it is an index of how sure we
are that they won’t completely and utterly screw the pooch.
So what can go wrong?
I’m sick of hearing
about hyperinflation. The case for gold often starts off with a chart of narrow
money or the Central Bank balance sheet, and skips over the (dead-in-the-water)
dynamics of broad money. Economists like to use the parable of “helicopter
money” (banknotes thrown from a helicopter), and sadly some people appear to be
scanning the skies for scrip-dispensing helicopters. What’s actually happened
is that the helicopter pilot suffered some nasty losses on US subprime debt and
Greek Government bonds and is hoarding the new money, so it’s not having a lot
of inflationary impact."
http://pawelmorski.wordpress.
http://pawelmorski.wordpress.
Assault On Gold Update — Paul Craig Roberts
"According to
Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500
tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of
a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of
the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price,
thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it
from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market
price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at
the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If
enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.
A naked short is when
the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells
shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on
gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as
participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do
not need to be covered with the physical metal.
In other words, with
naked shorts, no physical metal is actually sold."
http://www.paulcraigroberts.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.
The end of the second great gold rally
"The recent
12-year bull market in gold has come to an end. Gold today is 22% below its
2011 high, but it is still 480% above its 2001 low. This could be a wild ride.
The first great gold
rally occurred in the 1970s, sparked by Nixon's decision to abandon the
dollar's link to gold. The Fed had been failing to tighten policy since the
mid-1960s, despite continual outflows of gold which were symptomatic of
declining dollar demand and rising dollar supply—in short, dollars were in
excess supply. Set free, gold rose from $35/oz. to a peak of $850 in January
1980, for a spectacular gain of over 2,330%, and the excess of dollars combined
with loss of confidence in the dollar fueled a surge of inflation. That
incredible gold rally was brought to an end by Fed chairman Paul Volcker, who
in 1979 decided to slam on the monetary brakes in order to bring inflation
under control. From its peak in early 1980, gold proceeded to fall for the next
21 years."
Infografiki demonocracy.info - US Debt oraz złoto
Świetne wizualizacje, polecam też
przeglądnąć pozostałe infografiki zdemonocracy.info.
Polityka monetarna cd.
1)
Dlaczego twierdzenie, że "luzowanie ilościowe" spowoduje
hiperinflację jest nieprawdziwe:
2) Zimne
spojrzenie na korelację pomiędzy "drukowaniem", a wzrostami na
giełdach, potwierdzone danymi o bilansach największych banków centralnych.
3) Coś
dla wytrwałych - krytyka Standardu Złota. Autor to niewątpliwy autorytet w swojej
dziedzinie:
Outrageous Predictions 2013 - by Saxo Bank
Po raz 10 Saxo Bank
przedstawia swoje "szokujące" prognozy, tym razem na 2013 rok. Między
innymi: Cena złota do 1200 USD za uncję, Jen najśilniejszą walutą świata, ceny
Soi +50% itd. Jak zwykle pesymistyczne, aczkolwiek wchodząc w nowy rok, może
warto się z nimi zapoznać, mimo że prawdopodobieństwo ich zaistnienia jest
niewielkie. Życie zawsze może nas zaskoczyć.
Prognozy w infografice: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/lp/outrageous-predictions-2013-infographic
Komentarz Steen-a Jakobsen-a: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/saxo-banks-outrageous-predictions-2013-extreme-complacency-1677653761
"As we leave 2012, the consensus call is for the
S&P 500 to rise 10 percent next year, and not a single analyst sees the
market down in 2013 – I do not remember a similar level of complacency since
the year 2000, when everyone I knew quit their job in the hope of making a
fortune day trading. One of the things we can learn from history is
that we rarely ever take its lessons to heart." Steen
Jakobsen
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