Różne wnioski z tych samych danych

"Wśród ekonomistów i komentatorów rynkowych panuje zgodna opinia, że po kryzysie finansowym na początku lat 90. ubiegłego wieku Japonia, w ekonomicznym sensie doświadczyła dwóch straconych dekad.

Rzeczywiście jeśli porówna się zmianę PKB w Japonii, USA i państwach europejskich to można zauważyć, że japońska gospodarka rozwijała się dużo wolniej. Skupianie się jednak tylko na poziomie wzrostu gospodarczego może prowadzić do błędnych wniosków.

Populacja Japończyków w wieku produkcyjnym (15-64) osiągnęła szczyt w 1995 i od tego czasu spadła o około 10%. Nieuwzględnienie tego gigantycznego czynnika demograficznego, który przecież nie wynika z obecnej sytuacji gospodarczej Japonii, w analizie japońskich sukcesów i porażek gospodarczych wydaję się nierozsądne."

http://blogi.bossa.pl/2014/12/15/rozne-wnioski-z-tych-samych-danych/

Has The Bank Of Japan Started Another Round Of Central Bank Wargames?

"Never pick a fight with a central bank. The only one who gets hurt is you. Unless, of course, you are another central bank."

"So it is not quite true that a currency-issuing central bank has no opponents. No-one in the private sector will oppose it, unless they have a deathwish. But other currency-issuing central banks might, if they perceive its actions as threatening to their own economies. "

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2014/11/01/has-the-bank-of-japan-started-another-round-of-central-bank-wargames/

Why the US is not at risk of a Japan-style deflation

"Concerns about the risk of a "Japan-style deflation" in the U.S. are once again heating up, as the Fed prepares to taper its bond purchases, something that's very likely to happen either this month or next. The worry—echoed in a front-page article in today's WSJ—is that tapering and eventually ending QE at a time when inflation is unusually low runs the risk of producing even lower or negative inflation (i.e., deflation), which in turn could doom the U.S. economy to very weak or even negative growth for the foreseeable future, much like the problems that have plagued the Japanese economy for many years. Without ongoing QE support, the thinking goes, the U.S. economy could fall into a sort of deflationary quicksand and/or lose all forward momentum. But is deflation really so dangerous, and has growth really been so dependent on QE?"

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/12/why-us-is-not-at-risk-of-japan-style.html

Abenomics - Japan's Dangerous Experiment

"For Abenomics to succeed, Japanese households will need to reverse the recent deflationary trend of excess saving and encourage consumers to spend more. In the infographic, Mads Koefed, Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank, suggests that ‘the new experiment in Japan has boosted consumer sentiment and that has now resulted in consumers spending more of their money’. Will a more optimistic outlook translate into a revival for the world’s third largest economy? It is premature to gauge the success of Abenomics at this stage, and there are question marks over the proposed structural reforms. Fears remain over Japan’s alarming national debt, and an eventual rise in interest rates would add a greater burden on the government, undercutting reform measures. Will an offshoot of Abe’s remedies to Japan’s macroeconomic problems inflict a greater debt load?"

http://uk.saxomarkets.com/tradingdebates/abenomics-infographic-japan-2013

Will debt derail Abenomics?

"It seems to me that one of the automatic, if not always intended, consequences of Abenomics is to force up Japan’s current account surplus, and in fact to force it up substantially. This will have to do at least in part with deciding how to manage the country’s enormous government debt burden, which easily exceeds 200% of the country’s GDP."

"Second, it is not obvious that the world will be able to absorb a significant increase in the Japanese exports, and if Abenomics implicitly forces up the Japanese savings rate relative to investment (which is all that we mean when we say that economic policies force up current account surpluses), these policies can resolve themselves either in the form of high growth and soaring exports, or much lower growth and slowing imports. The former implies that Abenomics will be successful, while the latter that it will fail. It is not obvious, in other words, that Abenomics can succeed in a world of weak demand, and its failure is likely to make Japan’s domestic imbalances worse, not better."

http://blog.mpettis.com/2013/11/will-debt-derail-abenomics/

Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy

"Many top economists have said that quantitative easing doesn’t help the economy. But many argue that – without QE – the economy would be much worse. How do we reconcile those opinions?

One of the main architects of Japan’s QE program – Richard Koo – Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute – explains that QE helps in the short-run … but hurts the economy in the long run (via Business Insider):

Initially, long-term interest rates fall much more than they would in a country without such a policy, which means the subsequent economic recovery comes sooner (t1). But as the economy picks up, long-term rates rise sharply as local bond market participants fear the central bank will have to mop up all the excess reserves by unloading its holdings of long-term bonds.
Demand then falls in interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles and housing, causing the economy to slow and forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. The economy heads towards recovery again, but as market participants refocus on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term rates surge in a repetitive cycle I have dubbed the QE “trap.”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/criticism-by-architect-of-japanese-quantitative-easing-of-fed-policy/

Japan; from quagmire to Abenomics to collapse! Part I, II, III

"The second thing the reader needs to know about economics is that debt can have a positive or a negative effect on wealth creation, depending on what kind of deb. If the debt is made with the intent of making a subsequent sale, id est. a business loan, it will help increase capital accumulation. However, if the debt is taken on to fund current consumption it will decumulate the capital stock and make society poorer. (...)

Japan misallocated large amounts of capital in the 1980s. Instead of dealing with it head-on, they tried to paper over the problems with fiscal expansion, lowering interest rates to laughable levels and expanding the central bank balance sheet. This story should be familiar to all Americans and Europeans by now as the western economies did the exact same thing in the 2000s.

All it did for Japan was to lift public debt to levels that eat away all tax revenue."

Part I http://www.bawerk.net/#post16
Part II http://www.bawerk.net/#post17
Part III http://www.bawerk.net/#post18

Abe Spurs Day Traders as Japan Stock Swings Hit 2-Year High

"Day trading helps explain why Japanese individuals now account for more than 40 percent of the nation’s equity volume, or about as much as the overseas institutions that once were the biggest traders. They’ve also helped make Japan the most volatile developed market, which is good for some and bad for others. (...) Dramatic price movements aren’t the only thing that’s made Japan a day trader’s paradise. Deregulation of margin tradingopened the flood gates, Murakami said. After rules were relaxed in January, investors can borrow three times as much as their brokerage account balances and turn loans over the instant they exit a trading position."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-23/abe-spurs-day-traders-as-japan-stock-volatility-hits-2-year-high.html

Goldman Slams Abenomics: "Positive Impact Is Gone, Only High Yields And Volatility Remain; BOJ Credibility At Stake"

"While many impartial observers have been lamenting the death of Abenomics now that the Nikkei - essentially the only favorable indicator resulting from the coordinated and unprecedented action by the Japanese government and its less than independent central bank - has peaked and dropped 20% from the highs, Wall Street was largely mum on its Abenomics scorecard. This changed overnight following a scathing report by Goldman which slams Abenomics, it sorry current condition, and where it is headed, warning that unless the BOJ promptly implements a set of changes to how it manipulates markets as per Goldman's recommendations, the situation will get out of control fast."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-18/goldman-slams-abenomics-positive-impact-gone-only-high-yields-and-volatility-remain-

A quick note on “helicopter drops”

"Japan has been the king of “helicopter drops” under the money-financed government spending definition, but has never undertaken the sort of direct-to-household, unconditional transfers that Beckworth proposes. Beckworth is very clear that he supports heli drops precisely because “[f]iscal policy geared toward large government spending programs is likely to be rife with corruption, inefficient government planning, future distortionary taxes, and a ratcheting up of government intervention in the economy.” Direct, unconditional, uniform transfers to households are nearly immune to corruption and involve no increase in the degree to which government directs the use of real economic resources. (...) Japan’s fiscal policy, on the other hand, has been notorious for cronyism, and has directed oceans of sweat and concrete into infrastructure."

http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/4388.html

Why Japan Is Bad For The World

"Japan continues to be the world’s biggest financial story. The consensus seems to be that the country’s extraordinary economic measures are good for both itself and the world. I’ve detailed previously how Japan’s efforts are likely to have terrible domestic economic consequences, whether they succeed or not. Today, I’m going to explore the latter idea: that Yen depreciation will benefit other countries as they’ll depreciate their own currencies, which will make their economies more competitive too. This idea, put forward by some serious financial commentators, is laughable as it ignores both history and any sense of simple logic. The implications are worth exploring though as competitive currency devaluations have already begun and are likely accelerate from here."

http://asiaconf.com/2013/05/17/why-japan-is-bad-for-the-world/

Japan: A cunning plan

"So this is Japan's national problem. The country has a lot of debt, much of it issued by the government. On the plus side, nominal interest rates are low, making the debt easy to service (albeit that interest costs are a quarter of government spending, see Andy Xie's analysis). On the negative side, those low interest rates are a reflection of a deflationary, slow-growth environment that means its debt isn't going to disappear. 

Bring forward the cunning plan. Generate inflation and consumers will start spending, business confidence will improve and growth will resume. This will reduce the government's annual deficit and reduce the real value of the debt over time. Problem solved. But what about investors? Won't they demand a higher yield to compensate for the inflation? Marty Feldstein reckons a four percentage point rise in borrowing costs will push the annual deficit to 20% of GDP (admittedly, because of the average maturity of the debt, that would take some time to occur)."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/04/japan?fsrc=rss

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning

"Japan is on an unsustainable path of a strong yen and deflation. The unprofitability of Japan's major exporters and emerging trade deficits suggest that the end of this path is in sight. The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30 to 40 percent. It will be a big shock to Japan's neighbors and its distant competitors like Germany. The yen's devaluation in 1996 was a main factor in triggering the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan's neighbors must have a strong banking system to withstand a bigger devaluation of the yen."

http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177_all.html

[Demonocracy.info] Global Financial Crisis: A World In Debt

Infografika od Demonocracy.info - dług wybranych państw (USA, Japonia, Kanada, Chiny, Wielka Brytania) zobrazowany za pomocą banknotów 100 USD. Polecam też przeglądnąć ich pozostałem infografiki.

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html

Is Japan the Canary in the Keynesian Coal Mine?

"(...) I have been following the events in Japan with great interest. This is partly out of the desire to understand how a large, modern economy can be moribund for 23 years and counting. But I’m also interested because the policies that Japan has utilized for so long are now being emulated by many countries around the world. Japanese policy is the avant-garde of economics — or, perhaps, the canary in the coal mine. And since the financial crisis of 2008, the United States and Europe are following a very similar path. Of course, every country has unique characteristics and is comprised of its own social customs, values, demographics, and history. However, the approach these countries are using — and which Japan is using with gusto — can generally be traced back to the same philosophical source: John Maynard Keynes. Moreover, because Japan has been using these policies and approaches for so long — and because it has a very insular culture — we have a rich laboratory with which to make observations about the efficacy of monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, debt issuance, monetization of debt, and so forth."

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2013/02/06/japan-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/