"Since the
onset of the Great Recession, much of the world has been in a state of economic
winter: nearly 50 countries were in recession in 2009 and 15 countries slipped
into recession in 2012. After weak global growth in 2013, economic forecasters
are predicting a rosier outlook this year and next. Can these forecasts
be trusted?"
"As shown
above, none of the 62 recessions in 2008–09 was predicted as the previous year
was drawing to a close. However, once the full realisation of the magnitude and
breadth of the Great Recession became known, forecasters did predict by
September 2009 that eight countries would be in recession in 2010, which turned
out to be the right call in three of these cases. But the recessions in 2011–12
again came largely as a surprise to forecasters."
