"Various surveys seem to show that Germany's
economic situation is likely to be decent in 2013 (even though the fourth
quarter of 2012 was poor) while that of the rest of the euro zone is likely to
be very poor.
Can there really be such a gap between Germany and the
rest of the euro zone? For this to be the case:
- German exports outside the euro zone would have to
be substantial enough and sufficiently fast-growing. However, these exports are
not more favourable for Germany than for the rest of the euro zone;
- German domestic demand would have to be markedly
faster-growing than that of the other euro-zone countries, in particular in
view of the stronger growth in real wages in Germany. Household demand growth
is slightly positive in Germany, but is not vigorous since real wages are
increasing by only 1% per year, and business investment is declining as much in
Germany as in the rest of the euro zone."
