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"John Maynard Keynes famously wrote that:
"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any
intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist."
A modern example of that dictum, relevant to the economy, policy, and markets,
is the widespread view that banks can "lend out" their reserves
(deposits) at the central bank, as if bank reserves represented a pool of money
that is just waiting to "flow into" bank lending. Because such a
thing cannot occur and therefore has not occurred, the point is usually made in
reverse: banks currently are not "lending out" their reserves--rather
they are "parking" their reserves at the central bank or leaving them
"idle." But that they might lend them out in the future is a lurking
risk and a reason to be cautious about the central bank engaging in aggressive
quantitative easing (QE)."
"• Many talk as if banks can "lend out"
their reserves, raising concerns that massive excess reserves created by QE
could fuel runaway credit creation and inflation in the future. But banks
cannot lend their reserves directly to commercial borrowers, so this concern is
misplaced.
• Banks do need to hold reserves (as a liquidity
buffer) against their deposits, and banks create deposits when they lend. But
normally banks are not reserve constrained, so excess reserves do not loosen a
reserve constraint.
• Banks in aggregate can reduce their reserves only to
the extent that they initiate new lending and the bank deposits created as a
result flow into the economy as new banknotes as the public demands more of
them.
• QE does aim to ease financial conditions and spur
more bank lending than otherwise would have occurred, bu tthe mechanisms by
which this happens are much more subtle and indirect than commonly implied.
• If the excess reserves created by QE were to be
associated with too much credit creation, central banks could readily
extinguish them."