"Using a large sample of countries and 60 years
of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic
transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous
researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors
imposed a smooth and parsimonious polynomial curve across all age groups. They
also performed robustness checks and produced forecasts for the coming decade,
with all the necessary caveats."
