Dlaczego nikogo nie oskarżono o wywołanie kryzysu finansowego?

"W niezliczonych tekstach publicystycznych, raportach i analizach zrzucono odpowiedzialność za wywołanie kryzysu finansowego na wszelkie możliwe instytucje, osoby, mechanizmy i idee. Nie jest mi jednak znany przypadek pociągnięcia do odpowiedzialności karnej żadnej osoby lub instytucji w związku z kryzysem finansowym."

Does past performance matter? The persistence scorecard

Ciekawe zestawienie o zdolności zachowania ponadprzeciętnych wyników przez fundusze na amerykańskim rynku w latach 2009-2013.

"The phrase “past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes” (or some variation thereof) can be found in the fine print of most mutual fund literature. Yet due to either force of habit or conviction, investors and advisors consider past performance and related metrics to be important factors in fund selection. So does past performance really matter?"
"Very few funds can consistently stay at the top. Our studies show that as time horizons widen, the performance persistence of top quartile managers declines. Of the 692 funds that were in the top quartile as of September 2011, only 7.23% managed to stay in the top quartile at the end of September 2013. Similarly, 5.28% of the large-cap funds, 10.31% of the mid-cap funds and 8.15% of the small-cap funds remain in the top quartile. (...)
Looking at longer-term performance, only 7.71% of large-cap funds, 0.88% of mid-cap funds and 9.9% of small-cap funds maintained a top-half performance over five consecutive 12-month periods. Random expectations would suggest a repeat rate of 6.25%."

Wall Street's Brightest Minds Reveal the most important charts of the year

Zestawienie 126 wykresów od Business Insider, czyli na co patrzy rynek na koniec 2013 roku.

"Here they are: the most important charts of the year. 
We asked our favourite portfolio managers, strategists, analysts, and economists across the Street for the charts that they deem the most important right now, and this is what they sent us.
Much of the focus is on the 10-year Treasury yield — where does it go, and what is the read-across for other financial markets around the globe? Many are focused on the stock market as well, the consensus being that indices will rise to new highs again in 2014.
But there are a lot of other things going on as well."

Why the US is not at risk of a Japan-style deflation

"Concerns about the risk of a "Japan-style deflation" in the U.S. are once again heating up, as the Fed prepares to taper its bond purchases, something that's very likely to happen either this month or next. The worry—echoed in a front-page article in today's WSJ—is that tapering and eventually ending QE at a time when inflation is unusually low runs the risk of producing even lower or negative inflation (i.e., deflation), which in turn could doom the U.S. economy to very weak or even negative growth for the foreseeable future, much like the problems that have plagued the Japanese economy for many years. Without ongoing QE support, the thinking goes, the U.S. economy could fall into a sort of deflationary quicksand and/or lose all forward momentum. But is deflation really so dangerous, and has growth really been so dependent on QE?"

Bernanke – lepszy Friedman

"Ben Bernanke to chyba jedyny ekonomista, który swoją wypracowaną teorię i badania empiryczne miał okazję sam sprawdzić w praktyce na tak wielką skalę. Dlaczego nazwałem go lepszym Miltonem Friedmanem? Bo był w pewnym sensie jest uczniem Friedmana – propagował jego koncepcję przyczyn Wielkiej Depresji, przyznawał polityce pieniężnej stabilizacyjną rolę itd. Ale jednocześnie brak mu ideologicznego ferworu, nie jest rycerzem walki z państwem wszędzie i za każdą cenę, co pozwoliło mu posunąć myślenie dotyczące polityki pieniężnej znacznie na przód. (...)"

Germany's investment problem

"We all know that Euro membership has been of doubtful benefit to periphery countries such as Greece and Portugal. But Germany has been a net beneficiary of the Euro, hasn't it?"

"And it is also a story of too-tight fiscal policy. Instead of increasing its own borrowing to compensate for the fall in NFC borrowing, the German government gradually reduced its fiscal deficit - indeed in 2007 and 2008, it was net saving (running a surplus). On the face of it, this looks sensible: after all, we are led to believe that governments should net save during booms. But not, emphatically not, when there is a growing current account surplus. A persistent current account surplus is contractionary over the medium-term, because it by definition means that productive investment is leaving the country."

[Podcast SII] Kontrakty na WIG20 - zmieniamy mnożnik

138 odcinek podcastu Echa Rynku Stowarzyszenia Inwestorów Indywidualnych o kontraktach terminowych na WIG20, w którym gościem jest Paweł Szczepanik.

-  00:00 Kontrakty terminowe zmieniają się
-  02:20 Czy należy bać się dźwigni
-  05:13 Przegrywasz z rynkiem? Kup sobie indeks
-  08:51 Ile to kosztuje
-  11:47 Zmieniamy mnożnik z 10 na 20 zł
-  17:23 Daytraderzy w akcji. Co z nimi?
-  23:11 A może mnożnik x100 zł?

Green Giants (infografika)

"Wasn’t the economy supposed to be struggling? Then why are companies in the U.S. and all around the world raking in cash? Let’s look at which companies are most profitable — and how some of them stay that way."
"Of the 25 companies with the largest corporate profits in the world, banking, energy and technology firms are absolutely ranking it in.
Collectively, they made $567,856,000,000 in 2012 alone. And that’s only 25 of the most profitable companies in the world."

Ciemna strona Bitcoin'u - "The Libertarian Bitcoin dream is an interesting idea, but you wouldn't want to live there."

"So the Bitcoin experience gives us a glimpse of Libertarian paradise: What life would be like with as little government interference as possible, in a market free of burdensome laws and taxes.

Unfortunately, that experience looks like a total nightmare. It's characterized by radical instability, chaos, the rise of a boss-class of criminals who assassinate people they don't like, and a mass handover of wealth to a minority even smaller than the 1% that currently lauds it in the United States.

If Bitcoin was a country — Bitcoinistan? — it would be like Somalia."

Everything You Wanted To Know About Equity Market Valuations (And Didn't Know To Ask)

Bardzo polecam zapoznanie się z raportem opisanym w linku, ponieważ w przyjazny sposób zwraca uwagę na parę kwestii związanych z horyzontem inwestycji oraz czynnikami wyceny rynkowej jako całości. Dodatkowo można tam znaleźć ciekawe wartości dla dzisiejszych poziomów amerykańskiego rynku i gospodarki. Link do pełnego tekstu raportu jest na dole tekstu (tylko fragment na Zerohedge).

"This publication tries to assess the following questions:
1. What kind of return can be reasonably expected from stock market investments? Is that rate sustainable?
2. What kind of simple tools exist to tell if the stock market is cheap or expensive?
3. Are stock market returns mean-reverting?
4. Are we going to continue to see similar cyclical fluctuations in the future, or are we in the midst of a structural break?
I will try to keep things as simple as possible. Finance doesn't have to be complex (people make it complex)."

Beware of Recency Bias Following an Outlier Year

"Of all the cognitive biases that influence human behavior, recency bias is by far the most harmful to long-term investors. This is the tendency for investors to project their most recent experience into the future. In doing so, investors are assuming that what has occurred in the recent past will continue to occur indefinitely. At the same time, investors are also assuming that if something hasn’t occurred in the recent past, it won’t happen in the future."

Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices

"This is a tidy and useful addition to the literature on how high levels of international capital flows generate financial instability."

"Policymakers have long been concerned that large capital inflows are associated with asset-price booms. This column presents recent research showing that the composition of capital inflows also matters. The association between capital inflows and asset-price booms is about twice as strong for debt-related than for equity-related investment. Policymakers should therefore pay attention to the composition of capital inflows, since debt-related inflows may still undermine financial stability even if they do not result in an overall current-account deficit."

"In general, to monitor the threat of capital inflows, policymakers look at the current-account balance. If it is in surplus (as is the case in Germany today) or the deficit is low, they assume that capital inflows do not pose a risk to financial stability If, on the other hand, the deficit is large, they worry about the potential risk and, only then, they may look at the composition of capital inflows.

Our research shows that this view is misleading."

[Trystero] Fałszywa pamięć

Niektóry z uczestników rynku sugerują prowadzenie własnego dziennika transakcyjnego, argumentując to w różny sposób. W tekście Trystero został przywołany jeden z argumentów (link poniżej).

"Uczestnicy brali udział w interaktywnym eksperymencie, którego celem miało być sprawdzenie jak zmienił się ich stosunek do ważnych wydarzeń politycznych z ostatnich kilkunastu lat. Uczestnikom pokazano cztery fotografie pokazujące ważne wydarzenia polityczne w USA. Zdjęciom towarzyszył krótki opis. Badani najpierw mieli odpowiedzieć na pytanie jak dobrze pamiętają te wydarzenia:
·         pamiętam, że widziałem to wydarzenie w wiadomościach
·         pamiętam to wydarzenia ale go nie widziałem
·         nie pamiętam tego wydarzenia
·         pamiętam to wydarzenie ale w inny sposób
Następnie mieli opisać co czuli gdy wydarzenia się rozgrywały oraz co o nich myślą po upływie czasu.
Fortel polegał na tym, że jedno z czterech wydarzeń zostało sfabrykowane. "

Customer Loyalty in Retail Banking: Global Edition 2013

Bardzo polecam przeglądnąć opracowanie od Bain & Company o zachowaniach klientów banków na całym świecie. Opracowanie zawiera masę ciekawych zestawień, przykładowo można znaleźć informację wykorzystaniu bankowości mobilnej oraz wizytach w oddziałach w rozbiciu na poszczególne kraje. Lub też znaleźć informację o motywach będących podstawą zmiany banku. (Raport w pliku pdf.)

"How exactly does customer loyalty translate into better financial results for a retail bank? And how much value is at stake? For many bankers, the link between loyalty and financial results is somewhat unclear.
This year’s report, based on Bain’s proprietary research with 190,200 consumers in 27 countries, sheds light on how banks are using (or failing to use) loyalty to improve the economics of the business. The research was conducted online in July and August 2013 through market research firms Research Now and GMI."

The $5 trillion dilemma facing banking regulators

"During the financial crisis, everybody became familiar with the idea that a bank could be “too interconnected to fail”. The problem arises from the way that derivatives tend to accumulate: if you have a certain position with a certain counterparty, and you want to unwind that position, then you can try to negotiate with your original counterparty — but they might not be particularly inclined to give you the best price. So instead you enter into an offsetting position with a different counterparty. You now have two derivatives positions, rather than one. The profits on one should offset any losses on the other — but your counterparty risk has doubled. As a result, total counterparty risk only ever goes up, and when a bank like Lehman Brothers fails, the entire financial system gets put at risk."

"All of which means that as we move to a system of central clearinghouses, a new systemic risk is emerging: “fire sale risk” is the term of art. If a market becomes stressed, and the clearinghouses raise their margin requirements, then the consequences can be huge. In the bond market, the death spiral is all too well known: a sovereign starts looking risky, the margin on its bonds is hiked, which in turn triggers a sell-off in that country’s bonds, which makes them seem even riskier, which triggers another margin hike, and so on."

Kilka ważnych pytań, część 12: Czy Analiza fundamentalna (AF) jest skuteczniejsza od Analizy technicznej (AT) ?

Polecam świetny tekst T. Symonowicza, w którym wskazuje pewne różnice pomiędzy analizą fundamentalną i techniczną.

"Na wstępie podobnie jak w przypadku Analizy technicznej można by zadać proste pytanie: czy Analiza fundamentalna działa? Udzielenie odpowiedzi byłoby równie trudne, przynajmniej z dwóch powodów:
(1) Z racji tego, że analizuje ona nie tylko wymierne dane (quantitative analysis), ale również wpływ wydarzeń rynkowych i okołorynkowych (qualitative analysis), w proces decyzyjny uwikłane są głęboko: intuicja, interpretacja, subiektywny osąd. W tym układzie już w założeniach cały proces zależy od kompetencji człowieka, podlegającego szeregowi błędów behawioralnych i poznawczych.
(2) Brak możliwości obiektywnej weryfikacji samej AF przez oddzielenie jej od każdorazowych decyzji inwestora powoduje, że trudno stwierdzić czy ewentualną przewagę na rynku generuje ona sama czy użytkownik. AF nie działa w oderwaniu od inwestora, jest co najwyżej tak dobra jak stosujący ją."

Abenomics - Japan's Dangerous Experiment

"For Abenomics to succeed, Japanese households will need to reverse the recent deflationary trend of excess saving and encourage consumers to spend more. In the infographic, Mads Koefed, Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank, suggests that ‘the new experiment in Japan has boosted consumer sentiment and that has now resulted in consumers spending more of their money’. Will a more optimistic outlook translate into a revival for the world’s third largest economy? It is premature to gauge the success of Abenomics at this stage, and there are question marks over the proposed structural reforms. Fears remain over Japan’s alarming national debt, and an eventual rise in interest rates would add a greater burden on the government, undercutting reform measures. Will an offshoot of Abe’s remedies to Japan’s macroeconomic problems inflict a greater debt load?"