Najlepszym sposobem, aby zachęcić Was do dołączenia do Share
Economics, będzie pokazanie kilku przykładowych wiadomości jakie do tej pory
pojawiły się na Grupie. Wybraliśmy tylko kilka z nich, aby pokazać Wam jak
szeroki jest zakres tematyczny publikowanych wiadomości przez naszych członków.
Mamy nadzieję, że przeglądnięcie poniższych linków zachęci Was do dołączenia do
naszej Grupy!
1) NBER - Debt Overhangs: Past and Present
Ciekawa publikacja naukowa o skutkach utrzymywania nadmiernego
poziomu długu w stosunku do PKB. Badanie zostało wykonane na okresie prawie 200
lat, gdzie zidentyfikowano 26 przypadków, kiedy relacja długu do PKB
przekraczała poziom 90% przez dłużej niż 5 lat. Obliczono również między
innymi, o ile była mniejsza dynamika PKB w okresach, kiedy relacja długu do PKB
kształtowała się powyżej 90% od okresów poniżej 90%.
2) The Tale Of A Whale Of A Fail
Artykuł o głośnej historii z pierwszej połowy 2012 roku -
gigantycznej stracie londyńskiego pracownika JP Morgan w ostatecznej wysokości
około 6,2 miliarda USD. Tekst powstał na początku wyjaśniania całej historii, jednak
całkiem ciekawym językiem opisuje prawdopodobny mechanizm tamtej transakcji.
"What seems, loosely, to have happened to the Whale is a
combination of things. One is, he got more optimistic and so sold more
protection – making the bet relatively more bullish, though not absolutely
bullish. It is almost certainly – though who knows? – not correct to say, as
everyone does, that Iksil was long $100 billion of corporate credit in his CDX
book. It is certainly correct to say that the CIO was overall long credit –
that’s what it does! invest JPMorgan’s money in credit instruments! – or that
JPMorgan as a whole was long credit – it’s a bank! – but the credit derivatives
book probably was a hedge designed to hedge tail risk."
3) What’s Inside America’s Banks?
Interesujący artykuł o amerykańskim systemie bankowym, ze sporą
liczbą odniesień do wybranych przykładów sytuacji finansowej poszczególnych
instytucji oraz sugestii potencjalnych zmian dla całego sektora finansowego.
"Some four years after the 2008 financial crisis, public trust in
banks is as low as ever. Sophisticated investors describe big banks as “black
boxes” that may still be concealing enormous risks—the sort that could again
take down the economy. A close investigation of a supposedly conservative
bank’s financial records uncovers the reason for these fears—and points the way
toward urgent reforms."
4) The Eurozone after the November Eurogroup Greek Deal
Tekst napisany przez greckiego profesora ekonomii o porozumieniu Eurogrupy
z listopada 2012 roku w sprawie pomocy dla Grecji. Bardzo dużo ciekawych
szczegółów oraz przemyśleń na temat całej złożonej sytuacji w Grecji (z punktu
widzenia rządu Grecji oraz Troiki), założeń dotychczasowej europejskiej pomocy.
"So, what will come of Greece, given the latest Eurogroup
‘decision’? It is my fear, and belief, that the country is becoming a version
of Kosovo– a protectorate in which the euro remains the currency, sovereignty
is minimal, the population is ruled over by a glorified kleptocracy with strong
links with Berlin and, last but not least, a permanent migratory flow is
established that sees the young and the skilled move to northern Europe and
beyond."
5) EBC Working Paper NO 1424 - The pitch rather that the pit
Czyli czym w wolnych chwilach od "ratowania" Grecji
zajmują się w Europejskim Banku Centralnym.
"At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches
were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural
experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention. Using
minute‐by‐minute trading data for fifteen international stock exchanges, we
present three key findings. First, when the national team was playing, the
number of trades dropped by 45%, while volumes were 55% lower. Second, market
activity was influenced by match events. For instance, a goal caused an additional
drop in trading activity by 5%. The magnitude of this reduction resembles what
is observed during lunchtime, and as such might not be indicative for shifts in
attention."
6) High Frequency Trading (HFT)
Dwie wybrane infografiki o HFT.
7) US Debt Ceiling Visualized in $100 Bills
Wizualizacja
długu Stanów Zjednoczonych za pomocą banknotów studolarowych.
8) Too Big to Succeed
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/02/10/too-big-to-succeed/
Ciekawy tekst o zagrożeniach i problemach związanych z wielkością instytucji finansowych.
"It’s understandable why board members and CEOs want to grow the banks to gorge on complex financial structures despite the risk they pose. They come from the old world and still think profits grow with size. They know the biggest upfront profits come from opaque financial structures that allow them to extract bigger margins. And for nine out of ten years they are right and get paid well, but they are building banks destined to fold under their own size and complexity. It’s the tenth year that is the cost to the equity holders and the general public."
9) Algorithms Take Control of Wall Street
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/12/ff_ai_flashtrading/
Artykuł o powstaniu i roli handlu algorytmicznego na dzisiejszym rynku finansowym.
"Some built algorithms to perform the familiar function of discovering, buying, and selling individual stocks (a practice known as proprietary, or “prop,” trading). Others devised algorithms to help brokers execute large trades—massive buy or sell orders that take a while to go through and that become vulnerable to price manipulation if other traders sniff them out before they’re completed. These algorithms break up and optimize those orders to conceal them from the rest of the market. (This, confusingly enough, is known as algorithmic trading.) Still others are used to crack those codes, to discover the massive orders that other quants are trying to conceal. (This is called predatory trading.)"
10) What to Do about High-Frequency Trading
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/faj.v69.n2.6
Tekst o HFT opisujący zarówno pozytywne i negatywne skutki działalności HFT oraz dodatkowo zawierający parę sugestii odnośnie zmian w sferze regulacyjnej.
"Many people believe that restrictions on HFT cannot harm the markets because investment decisions are not made over one-second intervals, much less over millisecond intervals. The premise of this argument is right, but the conclusion is wrong. HFT promotes markets by making them more liquid and thus ultimately lowers corporate costs of capital. High-frequency traders need to submit and cancel their orders quickly to provide liquidity cheaply. The most pressing danger that the markets face from HFT is least recognized: High-frequency traders are engaged in a costly technology arms race that will not end well for investors if regulators do not act soon. Fortunately, a simple change in order-handling procedures—described herein—can sensibly stop this race."
11) Ending the Corporate Tax
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ending-corporate-tax
Spojrzenie na temat podatku od zysków przedsiębiorstw jego ekonomicznych skutków.
"Who pays the corporate tax? A corporation is only a legal means by which to do business. Taxes may be levied upon it, but only people pay taxes. Thus there always has been much debate about who pays the corporate tax. Is it passed on to customers in higher prices? Is it passed on to workers in the form of lower wages? Or is it passed on to the stockholders in the form of lower dividends and capital gains?"
12) Why It’s Smart to Be Reckless on Wall Street
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/02/27/why-its-smart-to-be-reckless-on-wall-street/
Ciekawy tekst o pewnym pomyśle na zarabianie na Wall Street. Na liczby w tekście radzimy spoglądać z pewnym dystansem, gdyż ciężko je zweryfikować, ale sam opis metody wyciągania premii jest intrygujący.
"In 2000 a young PhD in mathematics approached me about a job before eventually landing at a European bank in research. In 2004 he started proprietary trading, where traders bet with the bank’s money. Pay was 15% of the profits. In 2005 he bought obscure and high-yielding corporate bonds, which generated profits of $40 million. He took home $6 million. In 2006 he made $80 million and took home $12 million. In 2007 the world turned and the group was disbanded as losses mounted. He was dismissed, and his trades eventually lost the firm close to $300 million. What was his PhD thesis about? Game theory, or using math to find the optimal solution to complex systems."
8) Too Big to Succeed
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/02/10/too-big-to-succeed/
Ciekawy tekst o zagrożeniach i problemach związanych z wielkością instytucji finansowych.
"It’s understandable why board members and CEOs want to grow the banks to gorge on complex financial structures despite the risk they pose. They come from the old world and still think profits grow with size. They know the biggest upfront profits come from opaque financial structures that allow them to extract bigger margins. And for nine out of ten years they are right and get paid well, but they are building banks destined to fold under their own size and complexity. It’s the tenth year that is the cost to the equity holders and the general public."
9) Algorithms Take Control of Wall Street
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/12/ff_ai_flashtrading/
Artykuł o powstaniu i roli handlu algorytmicznego na dzisiejszym rynku finansowym.
"Some built algorithms to perform the familiar function of discovering, buying, and selling individual stocks (a practice known as proprietary, or “prop,” trading). Others devised algorithms to help brokers execute large trades—massive buy or sell orders that take a while to go through and that become vulnerable to price manipulation if other traders sniff them out before they’re completed. These algorithms break up and optimize those orders to conceal them from the rest of the market. (This, confusingly enough, is known as algorithmic trading.) Still others are used to crack those codes, to discover the massive orders that other quants are trying to conceal. (This is called predatory trading.)"
10) What to Do about High-Frequency Trading
http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/faj.v69.n2.6
Tekst o HFT opisujący zarówno pozytywne i negatywne skutki działalności HFT oraz dodatkowo zawierający parę sugestii odnośnie zmian w sferze regulacyjnej.
"Many people believe that restrictions on HFT cannot harm the markets because investment decisions are not made over one-second intervals, much less over millisecond intervals. The premise of this argument is right, but the conclusion is wrong. HFT promotes markets by making them more liquid and thus ultimately lowers corporate costs of capital. High-frequency traders need to submit and cancel their orders quickly to provide liquidity cheaply. The most pressing danger that the markets face from HFT is least recognized: High-frequency traders are engaged in a costly technology arms race that will not end well for investors if regulators do not act soon. Fortunately, a simple change in order-handling procedures—described herein—can sensibly stop this race."
11) Ending the Corporate Tax
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/ending-corporate-tax
Spojrzenie na temat podatku od zysków przedsiębiorstw jego ekonomicznych skutków.
"Who pays the corporate tax? A corporation is only a legal means by which to do business. Taxes may be levied upon it, but only people pay taxes. Thus there always has been much debate about who pays the corporate tax. Is it passed on to customers in higher prices? Is it passed on to workers in the form of lower wages? Or is it passed on to the stockholders in the form of lower dividends and capital gains?"
12) Why It’s Smart to Be Reckless on Wall Street
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2013/02/27/why-its-smart-to-be-reckless-on-wall-street/
Ciekawy tekst o pewnym pomyśle na zarabianie na Wall Street. Na liczby w tekście radzimy spoglądać z pewnym dystansem, gdyż ciężko je zweryfikować, ale sam opis metody wyciągania premii jest intrygujący.
"In 2000 a young PhD in mathematics approached me about a job before eventually landing at a European bank in research. In 2004 he started proprietary trading, where traders bet with the bank’s money. Pay was 15% of the profits. In 2005 he bought obscure and high-yielding corporate bonds, which generated profits of $40 million. He took home $6 million. In 2006 he made $80 million and took home $12 million. In 2007 the world turned and the group was disbanded as losses mounted. He was dismissed, and his trades eventually lost the firm close to $300 million. What was his PhD thesis about? Game theory, or using math to find the optimal solution to complex systems."
