Why Japan Is Bad For The World

"Japan continues to be the world’s biggest financial story. The consensus seems to be that the country’s extraordinary economic measures are good for both itself and the world. I’ve detailed previously how Japan’s efforts are likely to have terrible domestic economic consequences, whether they succeed or not. Today, I’m going to explore the latter idea: that Yen depreciation will benefit other countries as they’ll depreciate their own currencies, which will make their economies more competitive too. This idea, put forward by some serious financial commentators, is laughable as it ignores both history and any sense of simple logic. The implications are worth exploring though as competitive currency devaluations have already begun and are likely accelerate from here."

http://asiaconf.com/2013/05/17/why-japan-is-bad-for-the-world/

Japan: A cunning plan

"So this is Japan's national problem. The country has a lot of debt, much of it issued by the government. On the plus side, nominal interest rates are low, making the debt easy to service (albeit that interest costs are a quarter of government spending, see Andy Xie's analysis). On the negative side, those low interest rates are a reflection of a deflationary, slow-growth environment that means its debt isn't going to disappear. 

Bring forward the cunning plan. Generate inflation and consumers will start spending, business confidence will improve and growth will resume. This will reduce the government's annual deficit and reduce the real value of the debt over time. Problem solved. But what about investors? Won't they demand a higher yield to compensate for the inflation? Marty Feldstein reckons a four percentage point rise in borrowing costs will push the annual deficit to 20% of GDP (admittedly, because of the average maturity of the debt, that would take some time to occur)."

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/04/japan?fsrc=rss

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning

"Japan is on an unsustainable path of a strong yen and deflation. The unprofitability of Japan's major exporters and emerging trade deficits suggest that the end of this path is in sight. The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30 to 40 percent. It will be a big shock to Japan's neighbors and its distant competitors like Germany. The yen's devaluation in 1996 was a main factor in triggering the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan's neighbors must have a strong banking system to withstand a bigger devaluation of the yen."

http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-23/100372177_all.html

Outrageous Predictions 2013 - by Saxo Bank

Po raz 10 Saxo Bank przedstawia swoje "szokujące" prognozy, tym razem na 2013 rok. Między innymi: Cena złota do 1200 USD za uncję, Jen najśilniejszą walutą świata, ceny Soi +50% itd. Jak zwykle pesymistyczne, aczkolwiek wchodząc w nowy rok, może warto się z nimi zapoznać, mimo że prawdopodobieństwo ich zaistnienia jest niewielkie. Życie zawsze może nas zaskoczyć. 

Prognozy w infografice: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/lp/outrageous-predictions-2013-infographic

Komentarz Steen-a Jakobsen-a: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/saxo-banks-outrageous-predictions-2013-extreme-complacency-1677653761

"As we leave 2012, the consensus call is for the S&P 500 to rise 10 percent next year, and not a single analyst sees the market down in 2013 – I do not remember a similar level of complacency since the year 2000, when everyone I knew quit their job in the hope of making a fortune day trading. One of the things we can learn from history is that we rarely ever take its lessons to  heart."  Steen Jakobsen