Can Germany do quite well while the rest of the euro zone is struggling?

"Various surveys seem to show that Germany's economic situation is likely to be decent in 2013 (even though the fourth quarter of 2012 was poor) while that of the rest of the euro zone is likely to be very poor. 

Can there really be such a gap between Germany and the rest of the euro zone? For this to be the case: 

- German exports outside the euro zone would have to be substantial enough and sufficiently fast-growing. However, these exports are not more favourable for Germany than for the rest of the euro zone; 

- German domestic demand would have to be markedly faster-growing than that of the other euro-zone countries, in particular in view of the stronger growth in real wages in Germany. Household demand growth is slightly positive in Germany, but is not vigorous since real wages are increasing by only 1% per year, and business investment is declining as much in Germany as in the rest of the euro zone."

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=68886

How can unemployment be reduced in the euro zone?

"Unemployment is rising markedly in many euro-zone countries (we will look at the cases of France, Spain, Italy and Portugal). To combat unemployment, the causes of unemployment must first be identified. 

- Are we dealing with Keynesian unemployment, linked to sluggish demand and to underutilisation of production capacity? At present, the answer is yes, but the proportion of the unemployment that has a Keynesian origin is small (except in Spain). 

- It is a fact that euro-zone countries are characterised by low productivity gains, in certain cases (France, Italy) by a high tax burden, by significant  destruction of production capacity and by a decline in investment since the crisis. Structural unemployment is therefore high, and a reduction in  Keynesian unemployment would rapidly bring the unemployment rate to  the level of structural unemployment."

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=68884

What do countries want in the long term?

Ciekawe porównanie kilku państw przygotowane przez Natixis.

"Some OECD countries have extremely clear long-term strategies: 

- Germany wants to remain a large industrial country integrated in globalisation; 

- The United States (thanks to a reduction in labour costs and energy prices, perhaps exchange rate depreciation), the United Kingdom (thanks to a reduction in labour costs and in the tax burden on companies, perhaps also exchange rate depreciation), and Spain (thanks to a reduction in labour costs) want to reindustrialise. 

But we cannot see any clear strategy in France or Italy: 

- Competitiveness continues to deteriorate; 

- Taxes are not attractive; 

- Deindustrialisation continues; 

- Exports of services are not growing."

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=68860

NATIXIS: United States: QE3.5

Poniżej jest link do dobrego podsumowania pewnej zmiany w polityce Rezerwy Federalnej.

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=67477

Natixis - Grecja

Jeszcze raz NATIXIS, o sytuacji ekonomicznej Grecji, katastrofie jaka tam miała miejsce i o poszukiwaniach sektorów, które potencjalnie mogą pomoc Grecji wydostać się z obecnej czarnej dziury.

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=67045

Natixis - Potential GDP

Tym razem raport francuskiej instytucji NATIXIS o konsekwencjach przeszacowanego potencjalnego PKB w okresie po recesji (w kontekście inflacji czy strukturalnego bezrobocia). Bez konkretnych prognoz liczbowych, ale też da się czytać. :)

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=67092