Ograniczenia wyceny rynkowej

"Media biznesowe regularnie donoszą o astronomicznych wycenach rynkowych zwłaszcza w segmencie technologicznych startupów. Informacje o wielomiliardowej wycenie kilkuletniej spółki, która nie osiąga jeszcze przychodów, nie wspominając o zyskach, są z reguły pretekstem do rozpoczęcia dyskusji o bańce spekulacyjnej.
Miałem okazję zapoznać się niedawno z dwoma interesującymi spojrzeniami na ten problem. Pierwsze z nich przedstawia wyceny technologicznych startupów z pespektywy niedostępnej dla inwestorów – branżowej, biznesowej. Drugie podejście sugeruje, że dziennikarze, analitycy i blogerzy nadużywają określenia „rynek wycenia” (i jego pochodnych) i używają go w kontekście, w którym o żadnej wycenie rynkowej nie ma mowy."

Don't pin all your hopes on SME asset-backed securities

"So the idea must be that the presence of the ECB in the SME ABS market would spur loan issuance. To make a significant difference to credit conditions in the periphery and repair the broken monetary policy transmission mechanism, that loan issuance would have to be simply huge and concentrated in periphery countries. There are several problems with this, to my mind.

Firstly,it makes a huge assumption about the scale of potential demand for credit in the periphery from creditworthy SMEs. Is discouraged demand really that huge - or is there actually a problem with the creditworthiness of potential borrowers, because of the widespread destruction of physical and human capital in the periphery? Distressed corporate loans in the periphery are far higher than in the core. That's why spreads are so high. Why would an SME ABS programme improve the creditworthiness of borrowers?"

Draghi's Jackson Hole speech has been misunderstood

 "Mario Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole on August 22nd caused a considerable stir. For the first time, he admitted that the absence of a central bank backstop for government borrowing means both higher borrowing costs for governments and a greater likelihood of market punishment for profligate governments (...)."

"And the consequences of this shocking waste of human capital could be serious. Highly-indebted governments in the Eurozone depend on high tax revenues in the future to reduce their debt burdens: while even less heavily indebted governments such as Germany will also need high tax revenues in the future to support their increasing proportion of elderly. The future fiscal sustainability of the Eurozone depends on the young people whose futures are currently being systematically destroyed by unemployment. THIS is what Draghi's speech is about."

7 Reasons the economic crisis is a crisis for economics

"For critics of mainstream economics, the 2008 financial crisis represents the final nail in the coffin for a paradigm that should have died decades ago. Not only did economists fail to see it coming, they can’t agree on how to get past it and they have yet to produce a model that can understand it fully. A number of books critical of economics have been written or re-written with the crisis in mind; articles by journalists and critical economists are keen to use the crisis as evidence of the fields failings; and that student-led anti-economics initiatives call themselves things like the  'Post-Crash Economics Society' speaks for itself.
However, economists tend to see things differently – in my experience, your average economist will concede that although the crisis is a challenge, it’s a challenge that has limited implications for the field as a whole. Some go even further and argue that it is all but irrelevant, whether due to progress being made in the field or because the crisis represents a fundamentally unforeseeable event in a complex world. Below I have compiled the 7 most common arguments used to defend economic theory after the crisis, and will consider each of them in turn, with the quality of the arguments increasing as we go further down the list."