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zestawienia 20 najlepszych filmów dotyczących finansów. Między innymi: klasyka
w postaci Wall Street (1987), dokumenty lub firmy oparte na
faktach.
Getting Schooled in Risk: The Lessons of Poker
"Getting rich slowly in
the markets is simple. (...)
I said it’s simple, not easy. Winning the gold medal in the 100 meters or the marathon is simple: Just run faster than everyone else. In hindsight, superior investing strategies look simple. But they require preparation, discipline, and the ability to suffer pain in the short run. In fact, they work well in the long run precisely because they can hurt a great deal in the short run, so they are very hard to apply consistently.
I’m going to talk about poker as an analogy for risk in the market and about “good” risks versus “bad” risks.
Poker is a perfect laboratory of human risk taking. It teaches many lessons directly applicable to investing. Both are games of analysis and decision making under uncertainty, psychology and human emotion, and “luck,” which in the long run is variance — the winding road to the inevitable fate your skill, preparation, and mental toughness, or lack thereof, have destined you to."
I said it’s simple, not easy. Winning the gold medal in the 100 meters or the marathon is simple: Just run faster than everyone else. In hindsight, superior investing strategies look simple. But they require preparation, discipline, and the ability to suffer pain in the short run. In fact, they work well in the long run precisely because they can hurt a great deal in the short run, so they are very hard to apply consistently.
I’m going to talk about poker as an analogy for risk in the market and about “good” risks versus “bad” risks.
Poker is a perfect laboratory of human risk taking. It teaches many lessons directly applicable to investing. Both are games of analysis and decision making under uncertainty, psychology and human emotion, and “luck,” which in the long run is variance — the winding road to the inevitable fate your skill, preparation, and mental toughness, or lack thereof, have destined you to."
Pochwała limitów zadłużenia
"Pożyczanie staje
się pokusą nie do odparcia przy założeniu, że wynikające z niego obciążenie uda
się przesunąć na grupy społeczne inne niż te, które korzystają obecnie z
niskiego opodatkowania bądź wyższych wydatków publicznych. Taką grupą są na
przykład ludzie bezdzietni, którzy korzystając z zadłużenia publicznego,
przenoszą jednocześnie na potomków innych rodzin tę część obsługi długu, która
stanie się wymagalna, gdy ich samych nie będzie już na świecie. "
"Innym przykładem jest tzw. mutualizacja, czyli wspólna odpowiedzialność za długi poszczególnych państw – na przykład realizowana obecnie w ramach Unii Europejskiej. Poszczególne kraje zadłużają się, przekraczając granicę rozsądku, wiedząc, że przed bankructwem uchronią je procedury ratunkowe finansowane przez inne państwa członkowskie. Ratunek przyjmuje ostatecznie formę pożyczek międzyrządowych, by utrzymać iluzję samodzielnego spłacania pożyczek zaciągniętych przez każde z państw. Ale gdy tylko kredyty powędrują na odpowiednie rachunki, mutualizacja pokazuje prawdziwe oblicze w postaci umorzenia długu. "
http://www.project-syndicate.
"Innym przykładem jest tzw. mutualizacja, czyli wspólna odpowiedzialność za długi poszczególnych państw – na przykład realizowana obecnie w ramach Unii Europejskiej. Poszczególne kraje zadłużają się, przekraczając granicę rozsądku, wiedząc, że przed bankructwem uchronią je procedury ratunkowe finansowane przez inne państwa członkowskie. Ratunek przyjmuje ostatecznie formę pożyczek międzyrządowych, by utrzymać iluzję samodzielnego spłacania pożyczek zaciągniętych przez każde z państw. Ale gdy tylko kredyty powędrują na odpowiednie rachunki, mutualizacja pokazuje prawdziwe oblicze w postaci umorzenia długu. "
http://www.project-syndicate.
What Buffett Believes But Cannot Prove
"Most people think
Buffett is a perpetual bull on the stock market. This is not true. There have
been many occasions when he has been cautious about the stock market and even
times when he has forewarned of impending doom — 1969 and 1999. However, Buffett
is unabashedly bullish on the United States. He has never been shy to express
his belief that the United States offers tremendous opportunities to anyone who
is willing to work hard. He is upbeat, cheerful, and optimistic about life in
general.
Conventional wisdom holds that it is the young who are the eternal optimists and that as you get older, pessimism tilts the scale. But Buffett appears to be the exception to this maxim."
Conventional wisdom holds that it is the young who are the eternal optimists and that as you get older, pessimism tilts the scale. But Buffett appears to be the exception to this maxim."
How Game Theory Solved The 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle
Krótki filmik z lipca 2011 o sporze
Demokratów z Republikanami o podniesienie limitu zadłużenia (czyli podobnie jak
dzisiaj). Autor przedstawia w uproszczony sposób preferencje stron i próbuje
wskazać optymalne rozwiązanie wykorzystując teorię gier.
What is Shadow Banking?
"The Financial Stability
Board (2012) describes shadow banking as “credit intermediation involving
entities and activities (fully or partially) outside the regular banking
system”. This is a useful benchmark, but has two weaknesses:
First, it may cover entities that are not commonly thought of as shadow banking, such as leasing and finance companies, credit-oriented hedge funds, corporate tax vehicles, etc. (...)
Second, it describes shadow banking activities as operating primarily outside banks."
First, it may cover entities that are not commonly thought of as shadow banking, such as leasing and finance companies, credit-oriented hedge funds, corporate tax vehicles, etc. (...)
Second, it describes shadow banking activities as operating primarily outside banks."
"An alternative – ‘functional’ – approach treats shadow banking as a collection of specific intermediation services. Each of them responds to its own demand factors (e.g., demand for safe assets in securitisation, the need to efficiently use scarce collateral to support a large volume of secured transactions, etc.). The functional view offers useful insights. It stresses that shadow banking is driven not only by regulatory arbitrage, but also by genuine demand, to which intermediaries respond. This implies that in order to effectively regulate shadow banking, one should consider the demand for its services and – crucially – understand how its services are being provided (Claessens et al. 2012)."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/08/what-is-shadow-banking.html
What Radioshack's 5-Second 10% Spike Looked Like To The Machines
HFT i ruchy kursów akcji o 10% w poniżej
5 sekund na podstawie nagłówków wiadomości.
"News yesterday that
Radioshack was planning to seek new debt financing in order to give suppliers
more confidence - which in itself is kind of ironic that suppliers would find
an even-more-levered company a better credit risk - sent the stock spiking
higher by 10% in mere seconds as the machines took the headline and ran with
it. Sanity was restored moments later as the stock hit the exchange limits and
was instantly reverted back to unchanged."
"Each box represents one exchange. The SIP (CQS in this case) is the box at 6 o'clock. It shows the National Best Bid/Offer. Watch how much it changes in a fraction of a second.The shapes represent quote changes which are the result of a change to the top of the book at each exchange. The time at the bottom of the screen is Eastern Time HH:MM:SS:mmm (mmm = millisecond). We slow time down so you can see what goes on at the millisecond level. A millisecond (ms) is 1/1000th of a second.
Note how every exchange must process every quote from the others -- for proper trade through price protection. This complex web of technology must run flawlessly every millisecond of the trading day, or arbitrage (HFT profit) opportunities will appear. It is easy for HFTs to cause delays in one or more of the connections between each exchange."
"Each box represents one exchange. The SIP (CQS in this case) is the box at 6 o'clock. It shows the National Best Bid/Offer. Watch how much it changes in a fraction of a second.The shapes represent quote changes which are the result of a change to the top of the book at each exchange. The time at the bottom of the screen is Eastern Time HH:MM:SS:mmm (mmm = millisecond). We slow time down so you can see what goes on at the millisecond level. A millisecond (ms) is 1/1000th of a second.
Note how every exchange must process every quote from the others -- for proper trade through price protection. This complex web of technology must run flawlessly every millisecond of the trading day, or arbitrage (HFT profit) opportunities will appear. It is easy for HFTs to cause delays in one or more of the connections between each exchange."
The Ultimate "What Would Janet Yellen Do?" Cheatsheet
"Pulling from an
extensive record of public speeches and FOMC meeting transcripts, Goldman Sachs
reviews Fed Chair-nominee Janet Yellen's views on a number of policy-relevant
issues. Probably the most differentiating feature of Yellen's public
communications relative to other Fed officials has been her focus on
"optimal control" considerations in illustrating potential future
paths for the fed funds rate, which generally suggest a more accommodative path
than current consensus expectations.
Yellen has expressed confidence in the benefits of QE in the past, and has generally not suggested that the costs of QE are substantial enough to warrant any changes to the stance of policy.
She believes that most of the increase in unemployment since the crisis has been cyclical rather than structural in nature, and will be looking for a broad-based improvement in labor market indicators before deciding that a "substantial" improvement has occurred.
FOMC meeting transcripts show that Yellen generally erred on the side of preferring more accommodation during 2006 and 2007 (detailed transcripts are delayed 5 years), but expressed significant concern about inflation during the mid-1990s.
Via Goldman Sachs, (...)"
Yellen has expressed confidence in the benefits of QE in the past, and has generally not suggested that the costs of QE are substantial enough to warrant any changes to the stance of policy.
She believes that most of the increase in unemployment since the crisis has been cyclical rather than structural in nature, and will be looking for a broad-based improvement in labor market indicators before deciding that a "substantial" improvement has occurred.
FOMC meeting transcripts show that Yellen generally erred on the side of preferring more accommodation during 2006 and 2007 (detailed transcripts are delayed 5 years), but expressed significant concern about inflation during the mid-1990s.
Via Goldman Sachs, (...)"
Indeks oligarchizacji
"Credit Suisse opublikował niedawno kolejną edycję raportu o globalnym
bogactwie (Global Wealth Report). (...) W czasie przeglądania bazy danych
dołączonej do raportu stwierdziłem, że zawiera ona informacje, które pozwalają
stworzyć coś w rodzaju indeksu oligarchizacji – czyli wskaźnika, który pokazuje
w jakich stopniu gospodarka zdominowana jest przez super-zamożnych oligarchów.
Pretekstem do stworzenia takiego indeksu była informacja, że zaledwie 110
Rosjan kontroluje 35% całego majątku rosyjskich gospodarstw domowych. (...)
Sprawdziłem więc ile zamożnych osób (z majątkiem od 1 mln do 10 mln) przypada w
danym państwie na 1 miliardera."
When Wealth Disappears
"From the end of World
War II to the brief interlude of prosperity after the cold war, politicians
could console themselves with the thought that rapid economic growth would
eventually rescue them from short-term fiscal transgressions. The miracle of
rising living standards encouraged rich countries increasingly to live beyond
their means, happy in the belief that healthy returns on their real estate and
investment portfolios would let them pay off debts, educate their children and
pay for their medical care and retirement. This was, it seemed, the postwar
generations’ collective destiny.
But the numbers no longer add up. Even before the Great Recession, rich countries were seeing their tax revenues weaken, social expenditures rise, government debts accumulate and creditors fret thanks to lower economic growth rates.
We are reaching end times for Western affluence. Between 2000 and 2007, ahead of the Great Recession, the United States economy grew at a meager average of about 2.4 percent a year — a full percentage point below the 3.4 percent average of the 1980s and 1990s. From 2007 to 2012, annual growth amounted to just 0.8 percent. In Europe, as is well known, the situation is even worse. Both sides of the North Atlantic have already succumbed to a Japan-style “lost decade.”"
But the numbers no longer add up. Even before the Great Recession, rich countries were seeing their tax revenues weaken, social expenditures rise, government debts accumulate and creditors fret thanks to lower economic growth rates.
We are reaching end times for Western affluence. Between 2000 and 2007, ahead of the Great Recession, the United States economy grew at a meager average of about 2.4 percent a year — a full percentage point below the 3.4 percent average of the 1980s and 1990s. From 2007 to 2012, annual growth amounted to just 0.8 percent. In Europe, as is well known, the situation is even worse. Both sides of the North Atlantic have already succumbed to a Japan-style “lost decade.”"
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